Upcoming Catalysts (or, Meaningful Events That Probably Won’t Help Your Portfolio)
How do you know when you're in a bear market? The simplest answer is this, All News Is Bad. When a company puts out...
Black Swan Diving
Funding just got tougher.
My frequent description of TW's universe is that of "public venture capital". Our stocks share many of similarities with those companies...
INmune Bio: Things Turning For The Better
This past week was a surprisingly great week in TW's universe. I say surprisingly as, after watching INmune Bio (INMB) take a morning bath...
Market Tests Support…Here’s What To Do.
In the last two newsletters, I have been saying that the markets looked ready to move lower. More exactly, two weeks ago I said...
Execution is Key
A lot of market forecasters have been declaring this past week to have seen the end of the recent bull market. Having missed the...
Ruminating On INmune, Anixa and More
After a great start to the year, this last week the stock market reminded investors not to get too complacent. As I've said several...
Double Trouble
Last year I wrote an article comparing playing backgammon to investing. The key to success in backgammon is focusing on the doubling cube. Knowing...
Looking for 3-5X This Year? These Two Jackpot Stocks Offer That Potential
In 2022, interest rates killed micro-cap. This year, with increased expectations of a recession and an associated end of rate increases, the smaller stocks...
The January Halftime Report
It has been a great start to 2023, particularly for smaller, growth stocks. The most likely explanation for this is investor expectations regarding inflation...
For The TW Portfolio, Our FATE Awaits
This past week, thanks to a big move on Friday, saw the markets start the new year on a positive note. Investors increasingly believe...
The Light at the End of the Tunnel
In the hills just west of Charlottesville lies the Crozet Tunnel. Built in the mid 1800's, it was a major supply route in the...
Holiday Cheers!
in 2022 I will not be filling your inbox on Christmas Day, instead taking a week off from publishing. This will give everyone a...
Santa Claus Ain’t Coming To Town
Earnings and Interest Rates drive everything in the stock market. At the core of investing, this is all you need to know. When earnings...
Informed Decisions
This past week I had a rather interesting conversation with a very shrewd investor who has done quite well over the course of his...
Pot Watching…
As a kid, I grew up in the Boston area. Which makes me a life-long Red Sox fan. Since 2003, this has been a...
Crashing Bitcoins and Other Thoughts
Wil the last one in the Crypto room please turn out the lights?
The last time I wrote about Crypto was in August when I...
Dinner Table Talk
As a kid did you eat your vegetables first or save them for last, hoping your parents wouldn't notice? I always ate them first...
Counting Down to Catalysts
This past week Mrs. Carlson and I got the opportunity to tour the West Wing of the White House. A really unique and exciting...
Keeping An Eye On The Trees
Everyone has heard the saying, "can't see the forest for the trees." Roughly translated this speaks to getting so caught up in the minutiae...
Resetting Expectations
Yesterday I wrote my weekly newsletter. I wasn't happy with it. It lacked clarity of thought and didn't deliver upon the theme I was...
Bringing Down the House
With almost three months left in 2022, we are very close to setting a new record in the stock market. That would be the...
Welcome Back???
I guess I should have been more specific about who was in charge of the markets while I went on vacation. Because, whoever took...
Moving Day
At The Masters golf tournament, day three of the event is often referred to as "Moving Day". This is the time at which the...
Don’t Fight The FED. TW’s August Recap.
Sometimes you get it right. Here's what I said in my last July newsletter, as I previewed August.
Overall, I continue to be very optimistic...
The Bear Returns
After a head-fake rally heading into Chairman Powell's long-awaited annual FEC policy speech in Jackson Hole, markets came to the realization that the FED...
When News Is Good
TW turned in a very strong performance last week, with our accounts up 4% relative to a loss of 2% in the S&P 500...
Pendulum Swings
Market movements are similar to the arc of a pendulum. They swing way past fair value in one direction only to see the inertia...
The Domino Effect
This week, in what was a somewhat nostalgic moment for me, Cryoport (CYRX)'s earnings hit the newswire. For long time readers of TW, you...
Micros Rallied in July, Can It Continue?
Just when it's hottest in NY, and all the bankers have taken off for the Hamptons, we get to earnings season for the micro-caps...
Dog Days of Summer
Markets had a solid week but Friday was a classic example of what can happen during the slow summer months. Liquidity dries up and,...
Taking the Long View on TFF
This week my group had a Zoom call with TFF Pharma (TFFP). Over the past year TFF has become a very polarizing stock. There...
Catalysts Aplenty, a 2nd Half Preview
It's tough to read too much into a small sample size but the first week of July's stock performance has me thinking that my...
June in Review
Okay, so I lied. I said that I wouldn't have a newsletter this week but couldn't help myself and here we are with a...
This Week’s Newsletter
In a welcome, and overdue respite, markets rallied this past week. As we have been suggesting would be the case, the relief rally was...
High Degree of Confidence
This week I'm writing my newsletter on Thursday as I'm heading out to California this afternoon. The upcoming weekend will be spent in Downieville,...
June Gloom
In San Diego, this time of year the mornings can bring coastal fog. Referred to as "June Gloom", it usually lingers until late in...
Establishing Lows
In big market crashes, virtually every stock gets pummeled in unison. The market moves to an extremely oversold condition and the buying opportunity of...
CEO Knows Best
The saying about insider stock transactions goes like this, "there are many reasons for insiders to sell but only one reason for them to...
It’s Still The Early Innings
Two weeks ago this newsletter was titled, "Don't Fight The Fed". That week I discussed why the market was headed lower. The bottom line...
Stepping on Rakes
Last week was the second week in a row where the TW portfolio was basically unchanged. A sign that markets are calming down? Actually,...
It’s A Process
This past week in Charlottesville, The Boar's Head Women's Open took place. This is an annual tennis tournament featuring 32 professional tennis players, most...
How’s Your Balance (Sheet)?
The bear market rally has ended. I hope you enjoyed the reprieve but it's likely to get worse before it gets better. I am...
Your Home Is Worth What???
This weekend I'm out in California for a birthday party. The weather is warm, the streets are crowded and the houses are insanely priced....
The New Reality
"Change is the only constant in life" ~ Heraclitus
On Friday morning the first thing that caught my eye on Twitter was the happy announcement...
Separating the Wheat From the Chaff
As war continues in the Ukraine the repercussions are just beginning to be felt globally. The longer this battle continues the more it will...
Buy The Rumor, Sell The News
Markets are a discounting mechanism. In real time they discount future actions. There are very few times that events catch the market by surprise....
This Trend is NOT Your Friend
Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a hero. Contrary to what I thought would happen last week, Ukraine is putting up a valiant battle, holding off the...
Putin It In Perspective
By the time you read this newsletter, there's a good chance that the Ukraine will be begging for a ceasefire and, basically, surrendering to...
