Pardon Me

One of the strangest Thanksgiving Day traditions in this country is the annual pardoning of the Turkeys. This tradition, started by John F. Kennedy in 1963, in its current form, enables two large birds to escape the butcher’s block. The rest of the turkeys, however, are about to encounter a much less enjoyable future.

As I look at the performance of the stocks in the TW universe, I see quite a few turkeys. For various reasons, the vast majority of our stocks are down significantly on the year. While this has been a brutal bear market for small cap growth, that doesn’t make this following spreadsheet feel much better…

Some of these stocks, TFF Pharma ($TFFP) for example, are victims of their own toe-stubbing. Others have had forces beyond their control impact performance. Along the lines of the great JFK, I am going to take this opportunity to issue a pair of pardons to those companies that have suffered truly undeserved beatings. Please don’t shoot me.

INmune Bio ($INMB) has seen its phase 2 AD trial stuck in the starting gate at the hands of a capricious FDA. Despite a great safety profile in earlier trials, despite being approved in two other jurisdictions, and despite the overwhelming need for a cure for Alzheimer’s, the FDA prefers to sit on their hands and hold this trial up because…well, because they’re the FDA and that’s how they operate.

Share of INmune have actually held up better than many stocks even as the FDA keeps them from launching their trial. Perhaps this is because investors know that XPro’s track record, along with the track record of all TNF-inhibitors, suggests that this drug is destined for mega-blockbuster status? I certainly believe that is the case.

Due to the fact that the FDA is overworked, short-staffed, and able to play kick-the-can with any small drug company, I am hereby issuing a pardon the INmune. By the way, my guess is that Wall Street is going to do so in a big way in 2023 and anyone who joins me at this time stands an excellent chance of being handsomely rewarded.

enVVeno ($NVNO) is only down 11% this year but, looking at the long-term chart, Franz Klammer would be intimidated. The biggest issue that enVVeno has faced is, quite frankly, a skeptical medical and investment community.

Chronic Venous Insufficiency (CVI) is a large, untreated medical problem. Similar to AD, it has been a graveyard for those looking to cure it. Many have tried, none have succeeded.  Looking at the data presented by enVVeno, it seems likely that will change.

I’m no statistician, but when a company presents 3-year data that shows a major, lasting, positive effect across all trial participants, the small “n” begins to become meaningless. There is no way you can take 8 patients and show a large clinical benefit to the whole group without it being statistically significant. It’s simply impossible for it to be coincidental.

Last month I managed to speak to several experts in the vascular field. They all confirmed significant, unmet medical need for the VenoValve. They also had not heard of the product and, based on their experience, had doubts that it would work. In a nutshell, that’s the issue enVVeno faces right now…until the medical community appreciates the breakthrough, no one is going to pay it any attention.

I believe that 2023 is likely to be the year in which enVVeno opens the eyes of both the vascular industry and investors to the great work that Dr. Glickman and his team have done. The data, along with the ongoing trial that is rapidly gathering momentum, clearly show the VenoValve is working. The company is funded and well positioned for success.

Success, in my opinion, is almost inevitable here yet, at the current valuation, is disregarded by investors. For this reason, I am going to pardon enVVeno. Soon enough their efforts will become much clearer and those who join me in pardoning them will be very happy they have done so.

I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. We spent it at home in Virginia where we were lucky enough to have all our kids in town. I am truly thankful for all life has to offer and also for everyone who supports TW. I hope y’all had a great holiday. Thank you!!!

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  1. Thanks for the update, Dan. I agree. And two comments on your commentary. TFFP didn’t stub their toe. They got drunk and leapt off the diving board of a pool with 3 feet of water. And I think the FDA stands for “F***ing DumbAsses.” Ok, I’m done for now. Happy holidays!

  2. Had a great tday on a beautiful farm in Charlottesville.. we were prob a few miles from each other lol.. if my kids werent in Alexandria id probably move to that area.. drop dead gorgeous part of the country!


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