Volatility, Patience, and Where the Real Upside Lives

Markets wasted no time reminding everyone that January optimism doesn’t come with guarantees. The first full week of February delivered renewed volatility, uneven leadership, and a noticeable shift in tone, especially in tech. None of this is unusual, but it’s worth framing correctly so short-term noise doesn’t lead to long-term mistakes.

Volatility Is the Cost of Admission

U.S. investors retrenched this week, before an epic rally on Friday, as traders digested rising global bond yields, geopolitical uncertainty, and renewed questions around Fed policy. While the Russell 2000 saw gains, other indexes were not so fortunate. The S&P 500 slipped modestly but the Nasdaq took a more pronounced hit amid selling in large-cap tech. And, don’t even mention crypto which is in a full-blown meltdown.

February has a long history of choppiness, and this year is sticking to the script; uncertainty is now the word of the day.

The catalysts are mostly familiar: higher Japanese yields rippling through global markets, inflation concerns that refuse to fully disappear, ongoing geopolitical risk, and a growing willingness to question whether the biggest AI winners can keep carrying the tape without pause.

If the big AI spenders can monetize their massive outlays is indeed an important question for the market but this last week it become a secondary concern. The issue now foremost in many investor minds becoming how to assess the downstream impact of AI on existing businesses. Overnight the term SaaSpocalypse has entered trading jargon with many software companies’ futures becoming increasingly uncertain. AI agents seemingly could turn existing software programs obsolete in a future that appears closer to the present than ever.

All that said, nothing here suggests the underlying economy is rolling over. Manufacturing data remains constructive, employment is stable, and earnings—while uneven—are coming in stronger than forecast. What is happening is a repricing of expectations and a reminder that straight lines don’t exist in markets.

For long-term investors, this is the environment where discipline matters most.

Trading the Noise vs. Owning the Outcome

Periods like this invite short-term trading. With volatility elevated, there will be plenty of 10–20% moves to chase on both the long and short side. For some, that’s a feature. For most, it’s a distraction.

Our focus remains on businesses where the payoff isn’t a quick bounce, but a fundamental revaluation driven by execution, data, approvals, or commercial inflection points. Volatility is useful as a way to establish or add to positions where the long-term thesis remains intact. As price swings get wilder, opportunities to buy cheap stock present themselves overnight; as an example, Ondas (ONDS) raised money at $16.45 on January 9th…it traded at $8 and change on Thursday.

The Tailwinds universe if comprised of stocks that have ten-bagger potential. We are investing for the long-haul and, as long as the thesis remains intact, more than willing to ride out the short-term volatility.

The names below fall squarely into that ten-bagger category. They are not low-risk. They are not consensus. But each has a clearly defined catalyst where things going right could materially change how the market views the business.

Watchlist: Where the Upside Is Asymmetric

AEON Biopharma (AEON)
AEON continues to advance ABP-450, its biosimilar to Botox for therapeutic indications. With substantial product sales in foreign markets for quite a few years now, ABP-450 is well known and derisked as a drug; it’s proven itself to be, for all intents and purposes, the same as Botox.
Next key catalyst: FDA feedback following its Type 2a meeting and confirmation of the regulatory path for biosimilarity. A clean signal here meaningfully de-risks the timeline toward U.S. commercialization, particularly in migraine.

Aeluma (ALMU)
Aeluma sits at the intersection of photonics, sensing, and advanced semiconductor manufacturing. The stocks in this space are red-hot and, once they get their first customer win, Aeluma should be welcomed into the party.
Next key catalyst: Release of reliability and qualification data tied to customer evaluations. Demonstrating performance at production-relevant standards is the gating item between “interesting technology” and real revenue discussions.

Femasys (FEMY)
Femasys is a classic event-driven medtech story in women’s health. While FemaSeed sales continue to struggle, this story is all about their future blockbuster, FemBloc.
Next key catalyst: FDA progress on the FemBloc IDE and clarity around U.S. trial timelines. Regulatory alignment here would put permanent birth control firmly back on the table and refocus attention on future market size and adoption rather than current sales.

INmune Bio (INMB)
INmune remains a high-risk, high-reward biotech with two very different shots on goal. Both drugs appear to be effective; getting investor attention since the top-line failure has been the issue.
Next key catalyst: Regulatory submissions for CORDStrom outside the U.S., particularly in the UK, alongside continued progress of XPro in biomarker-positive Alzheimer’s patients, with more data and the end-of-phase 2 meeting results coming in the near future. Either would represent tangible forward motion.

Kazia Therapeutics (KZIA)
Kazia’s investment case hinges on Paxalisib in TNBC. If the next set of data reinforces the efficacy seen to date, the stock likely reprices at much higher levels.
Next key catalyst: The next bolus of data from the TNBC trial could come within weeks.

Senseonics (SENS)
Senseonics continues to push forward with its implantable CGM platform. As sales continue to ramp, investors will start to focus on the next-generation product which should be a massive hit.
Next key catalyst: Commercial traction following new product launches and expanded market access, particularly evidence of sustained patient growth under its evolving go-to-market model.

Vicor (VICR)
Vicor is a different animal—profitable, established, and deeply tied to power delivery challenges in AI and data centers.
Next key catalyst: Evidence that licensing agreements and next-generation power modules are translating into consistent revenue and margin expansion. Evidence of business with Nvidia would be the icing on Vicor’s cake; it’s likely to become evident in 2026.

Final Thoughts

Volatility is uncomfortable, but it’s also clarifying. It exposes weak theses, forces better entry points, and rewards investors who separate price movement from business progress.

The goal isn’t to predict next week’s market move. It’s to own companies where, a year or two from now, today’s prices look irrelevant because the underlying business changed.

Stay patient. Stay selective. And don’t confuse volatility in share prices with progress or lack thereof.

As always, this is not investment advice. Do your own work and size risk appropriately.