One of my readers has been leaving me a lot of messages about Anixa (ANIX) of late. The general gist of his communication is that the stock isn't performing. He's upset, which I totally get. It's no fun watching...
Last week I took off from publishing as I was meant to be skiing out west. Well, not exactly skiing in the traditional sense of having nice rides up the mountain and smooth sailing down groomed trails. The version...
This week's newsletter is a mid-week job as I'm heading out to the west coast for some back country skiing on several volcanoes of the Pacific Northwest. There will be no newsletter next week as well but, assuming I...
My thesis heading into 2023 was to expect a trader's market. This looked to be a year filled with catalyst driven moves and high volatility, but lacking a definitive trend and, as was the case for the prior 18...
A few weeks back I wrote about catalysts that weren't going to help your stocks. It was meant to be a little tongue in cheek but it's truly that kind of market. In case you require further proof of...
This past week saw very big gains in my two largest holdings, with Anixa (ANIX) trading up 34% and INmune Bio (INMB) closing up almost 27%. I'll be very honest when I say that it feels quite wonderful to...
Not to spend too much time looking in the rear view mirror, but a note I got from BTIG this past week did a nice job of summarizing the pain we have been facing in our biotech names.
How Long...
If you like roller coasters, investing in TW's universe certainly gave you thrills in the first Q. Our portfolio was up 15% in January, topped out around up 20% in February but closed the month unchanged, and took it...
When I moved to San Francisco in 1989, Herb Caen was a renowned columnist for the San Francisco Chronicle. His was an unabashed lover of the city he called Baghdad by the Bay and his articles were a treasure...
How do you know when you're in a bear market? The simplest answer is this, All News Is Bad. When a company puts out a press release describing an accomplishment that simply becomes a generator of trading activity and...
Funding just got tougher.
My frequent description of TW's universe is that of "public venture capital". Our stocks share many of similarities with those companies funded by the VC community, being small, high growth and cash burning. With the market's...
This past week was a surprisingly great week in TW's universe. I say surprisingly as, after watching INmune Bio (INMB) take a morning bath on Friday, the number of comments I received lamenting the portfolio's recent performance made it...
In the last two newsletters, I have been saying that the markets looked ready to move lower. More exactly, two weeks ago I said the following...
Baton down the hatches and keep some gunpowder in reserve. I think the next...
A lot of market forecasters have been declaring this past week to have seen the end of the recent bull market. Having missed the upward movement as a group, they are now doubling down on their bearish forecasts. And,...
After a great start to the year, this last week the stock market reminded investors not to get too complacent. As I've said several times over the past few newsletters, the market was pricing in a Goldilocks Scenario. When...
Last year I wrote an article comparing playing backgammon to investing. The key to success in backgammon is focusing on the doubling cube. Knowing when the odds are in your favor and stepping into a bet in a big...
In 2022, interest rates killed micro-cap. This year, with increased expectations of a recession and an associated end of rate increases, the smaller stocks are back in play.
This is increasingly apparent within the TW universe where, despite the market...
It has been a great start to 2023, particularly for smaller, growth stocks. The most likely explanation for this is investor expectations regarding inflation and future interest rates. While FED officials keep harping on further rate increases, the bond...
This past week, thanks to a big move on Friday, saw the markets start the new year on a positive note. Investors increasingly believe that the "Goldilocks Scenario" is likely to play out. For this to happen, inflation has...
In the hills just west of Charlottesville lies the Crozet Tunnel. Built in the mid 1800's, it was a major supply route in the Civil War. Considered an amazing feat of engineering, the elliptical design of the tunnel allowed...
in 2022 I will not be filling your inbox on Christmas Day, instead taking a week off from publishing. This will give everyone a chance to enjoy the holiday without me delivering more coal to readers. A good thing...
Earnings and Interest Rates drive everything in the stock market. At the core of investing, this is all you need to know. When earnings are increasing, stocks go higher. When interest rates are going down, stocks go higher. When...
This past week I had a rather interesting conversation with a very shrewd investor who has done quite well over the course of his career. He also happens to be on the board of one of my companies and...
One of the strangest Thanksgiving Day traditions in this country is the annual pardoning of the Turkeys. This tradition, started by John F. Kennedy in 1963, in its current form, enables two large birds to escape the butcher's block....
As a kid, I grew up in the Boston area. Which makes me a life-long Red Sox fan. Since 2003, this has been a good thing but believe me when I say, I lived a tormented childhood with every...
Wil the last one in the Crypto room please turn out the lights?
The last time I wrote about Crypto was in August when I had this to say, "I think Bitcoin is about to make another downward move on...
As a kid did you eat your vegetables first or save them for last, hoping your parents wouldn't notice? I always ate them first with a fear of missing out on dessert if I didn't eat them. So, in...
This past week Mrs. Carlson and I got the opportunity to tour the West Wing of the White House. A really unique and exciting experience, we got to walk through the working offices in the after hours and, making...
Everyone has heard the saying, "can't see the forest for the trees." Roughly translated this speaks to getting so caught up in the minutiae that you miss the big picture. Heading out to go surfing on some really good...
Yesterday I wrote my weekly newsletter. I wasn't happy with it. It lacked clarity of thought and didn't deliver upon the theme I was trying to express. I lost sleep over it. This morning I got up at 5...
With almost three months left in 2022, we are very close to setting a new record in the stock market. That would be the number of Fridays where the S&P is down over 1%. After this past Friday's shellacking,...
I guess I should have been more specific about who was in charge of the markets while I went on vacation. Because, whoever took over things in my absence did a terrible job!
Right before heading to Portugal, TW was...
At The Masters golf tournament, day three of the event is often referred to as "Moving Day". This is the time at which the true contenders separate themselves from the pack, moving up the leaderboard and earning a spot...
Sometimes you get it right. Here's what I said in my last July newsletter, as I previewed August.
Overall, I continue to be very optimistic for the TW universe and not so much about the larger cap stocks. The government...
After a head-fake rally heading into Chairman Powell's long-awaited annual FEC policy speech in Jackson Hole, markets came to the realization that the FED is on an anti-inflation crusade and rates are going higher, quickly, until we see that...
TW turned in a very strong performance last week, with our accounts up 4% relative to a loss of 2% in the S&P 500 and a larger negative 3% return for the Russell 2000. Looking at the performance of...
Market movements are similar to the arc of a pendulum. They swing way past fair value in one direction only to see the inertia stop and a reversal in the other direction. This consistent back and forth happens with...
This week, in what was a somewhat nostalgic moment for me, Cryoport (CYRX)'s earnings hit the newswire. For long time readers of TW, you will remember Cryoport as the first big winner I hit, returning multiples on my investment...
Just when it's hottest in NY, and all the bankers have taken off for the Hamptons, we get to earnings season for the micro-caps of the world. Generally this is not a very big deal as our early stage...
Markets had a solid week but Friday was a classic example of what can happen during the slow summer months. Liquidity dries up and, when the algorithms sell, it can get ugly really quickly in micro-caps. A good week...
This week my group had a Zoom call with TFF Pharma (TFFP). Over the past year TFF has become a very polarizing stock. There are those, like myself, who are enamored with the technology. In our minds, thin-film-freezing is...
It's tough to read too much into a small sample size but the first week of July's stock performance has me thinking that my call last week, "June may have been the turning point for the TW universe", is...
Okay, so I lied. I said that I wouldn't have a newsletter this week but couldn't help myself and here we are with a brief note on June as it was a month that certainly deserves attention for several...
In a welcome, and overdue respite, markets rallied this past week. As we have been suggesting would be the case, the relief rally was led by the most beaten up sectors. This of course includes biotech which saw the...
This week I'm writing my newsletter on Thursday as I'm heading out to California this afternoon. The upcoming weekend will be spent in Downieville, a former mining town that is now a mountain biking mecca. It should be a...
In San Diego, this time of year the mornings can bring coastal fog. Referred to as "June Gloom", it usually lingers until late in the AM. It catches visitors by surprise as they don't expect it to be cold...
In big market crashes, virtually every stock gets pummeled in unison. The market moves to an extremely oversold condition and the buying opportunity of a lifetime (or at least a decade) stares investors in the face. For those who...
The saying about insider stock transactions goes like this, "there are many reasons for insiders to sell but only one reason for them to buy." Like most stock market aphorisms, history shows this holds far more than a grain...
Two weeks ago this newsletter was titled, "Don't Fight The Fed". That week I discussed why the market was headed lower. The bottom line was, and remains, liquidity is being taken from the system. This leads to lower valuations...
Last week was the second week in a row where the TW portfolio was basically unchanged. A sign that markets are calming down? Actually, nothing could be further from the truth. The volatility in stocks is picking up daily...
This past week in Charlottesville, The Boar's Head Women's Open took place. This is an annual tennis tournament featuring 32 professional tennis players, most of whom are ranked in the top 250 in the world. Several past winners of...
The bear market rally has ended. I hope you enjoyed the reprieve but it's likely to get worse before it gets better. I am going to keep banging on the drum marked "caution" for the foreseeable future. Love my...
This weekend I'm out in California for a birthday party. The weather is warm, the streets are crowded and the houses are insanely priced. And, for now, going higher. There is nothing going on here that suggest inflation is...
"Change is the only constant in life" ~ Heraclitus
On Friday morning the first thing that caught my eye on Twitter was the happy announcement that we finally had a biotech acquisition taking place. Yep, Friday was April Fools Day.
April...
As war continues in the Ukraine the repercussions are just beginning to be felt globally. The longer this battle continues the more it will have a lingering effect on the world. One of these will likely be a dramatic...
Markets are a discounting mechanism. In real time they discount future actions. There are very few times that events catch the market by surprise. They might catch you or me by surprise but, in most cases, markets have already...
Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a hero. Contrary to what I thought would happen last week, Ukraine is putting up a valiant battle, holding off the Russian invaders and, in doing so, uniting a large portion of the world. It's amazing...
By the time you read this newsletter, there's a good chance that the Ukraine will be begging for a ceasefire and, basically, surrendering to Russia. The lines are being redrawn on the next cold war, reinforcing the two facts...
There's been an ongoing joke in the TW Slack chat room. It goes like, "please tell not to issue any more bullish press releases...we investors can't take any more pain." While the joke might not sound tremendously funny,...
Another wild week in the markets, which is simply par for the course. At this time investors are speculating over the number and timing of interest rate increases? Is inflation here to stay? Is the consumer about to freak...
What a week in the markets, right? The past five days saw the biggest ever one day loss by a single company, followed shortly thereafter by the largest ever single day gain. Facebook's pummeling led to Amazon's surge. All...
When we had kids I was super excited to watch classic movies with them once they were old enough. Top on my list was Rocky. An all-time great, I imagined my kids humming the theme song as they climbed...
Stocks are down again. It's a bloodbath. The micro-cap/biotech selloff has spread like Omicron, affecting everything that trades. There is likely more to come.
Because, that's what happens after you have the craziest bull market in history. You enter a...
Knock me over with a feather but there's finally been some movement in the ParkerVision (PRKR) vs. Qualcomm (QCOM) trial in Orlando. This is very exciting for the Company as they have been waiting many years for their day...
So much for thinking 2022 was going to be an improvement over last year. Last Sunday I tested positive for covid then, on Monday, we lost power in a snowstorm. That outage lasted the better part of four days,...
Investing in micro-cap stocks with a 3-5 year time horizon, which is my expectation for a holding period every time I enter a position, will by definition result in lots of volatility. That was certainly the case in 2021,...
Yesterday it was 70 degrees in Charlottesville. While playing platform tennis in a t-shirt and shorts, the comment was made that it seems unlikely to be a white Christmas this year.
Not much has appeared "normal" during this seemingly endless...
The irony of it all. While many companies scour the planet searching for potential gold mines, there's a garbage dump in the UK containing 500 million dollars in bitcoin sitting on a lost hard-drive. Bitcoin mining could take on...
My constant refrain for most of 2021 has been that I don't like the market but love the stocks in my portfolio. I can honestly say that across the board I've built a collection of exciting companies that are...
Well, that didn't last long, did it? On Tuesday and Wednesday we saw what looked like a great reversal for biotech. The XBI opened dramatically lower on Tuesday then reversed into a nice gain. With a similar move on...
Similar to how the richest billionaires are getting a disproportionate amount of the wealth in the US, the companies they founded are becoming an ever larger swath of the market by taking an increasing amount of the gains. Meanwhile,...
Higher interest rates and inflation are not good for long-term investment plays. When earnings are years out, a change in the discount rate can create a big swing in the current value of a company. Biotech is the worst...
Intelligent investing can truly be boiled down to the understanding of risk and reward. In order to properly assess the potential risks of an investment, and to understand the potential rewards, an investor has to perform extensive due diligence....
Back when i was a kid, every Halloween the news covered stories of some whack job that would hand out apples to kids. The apples supposedly contained razor blades hidden in them and were intended to do some real...
Rode the train up to DC from Charlottesville on Friday night and, let me tell you, despite all the years and money thrown at Amtrak, they still manage to make trips a lot longer than they should be.
On Friday,...
The markets had a nice bounce late last week. This was sparked by the government getting its act together enough to kick the debt ceiling can down the road until December. Yay!
I guess having that risk off the table...
September to remember? I had such high hopes. Sadly, it turned out to be a very forgettable month and I'm happy to have it behind me.
I was concerned about the market going into the historically weakest month of the...
After several weeks of lower stock prices, the market this past week decided that the looming bankruptcy of the world's largest real estate debt issuer wasn't a big deal after all. The fact that China's Evergrande was being compared...
The markets had another downward-trending week since the last newsletter. However, the overall tone of the market felt better from a micro-cap investing standpoint and my bi-polar attitude (loving my stocks, not liking the market) feels rather appropriate. Despite...
As I wrote about last week, we are entering what is historically the worst stretch of time for the market. I'm not sure why this is the case, but September is by far the toughest month for stocks. This...
I read this week where someone said, "the short story is always sexier." There's certainly a lot of truth in that. Here in September of 2021, we are confronted with a myriad of major problems: a pandemic, runaway inflation,...
I'm calling it a month. Normally, I'd wait until August is officially over before recapping things, but, since we only have two days of trading left, and since we are looking at a September to Remember (fingers crossed, big...
While the bankers and fund managers are heading out to the Hamptons for vacation, micro-cap earnings season kicked in last week and news flow in general seems to be picking up. I've been saying that the 2nd half of...
The markets seem to be quieting down as summer heats up and traders are heading to the beach for the last few weeks of August. It really feels like we are entering a "stock pickers" market as the action...
If you've been reading this newsletter for longer than two weeks, you likely have come to realize that I'm an investor not a trader. Quite simply, my philosophy is to look for stocks that have the potential to return...
The "bull" market continued this past week although it showed signs of tiring. Which is good because the bull ride we've been on resembles one at the Calgary Stampede. While the S&P 500 hits new highs, micro-cap growth is...
Last week wasn't a bad week for the markets at all. With a nice two day rally to end the week, the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 both gained 1% over the five trading days. This was quite the...
With the S&P 500 hitting new highs recently, continuing the rally from last March's lows, we are all having a great time, right? Uhhh, maybe not.
The last nine months of 2020, and first two of this year, are fading...
In a holiday shortened week, this newsletter comes from Kentucky where the TW household is attending a family wedding. Throw in a side journey to hit the Bourbon Trail and it's a fun-filled weekend that got an additional shot...
To steal a line from Charles Dickens, "It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. Then it was pretty darn good again." And now we have reviewed the first six months of 2021 and can...
As the market seems to be slowly settling into summer, volatility is dropping and news flow is getting sparse. Amazing to think this is the last newsletter before the 4th of July. The pandemic seemed to drag on forever...
Back in February, on our trip to Miami, I was fortunate to be introduced to a friend of a friend named "Phil". Phil just happens to be one of, if not the, best backgammon players in the world.
Backgammon is...
It was another great week for TW as the pendulum appears to be swinging full speed in our direction. This while the overall market continues to push to new highs and all eyes remain fixated on the Fed, inflation,...
Greetings from Ashland, Oregon where my tour of the west coast is ending in fine fashion. The biking here is outstanding, the meals our crew cooks up are incredible but the ability to write a coherent newsletter is rather...
The pendulum had swung too far. Simply put, companies that are funded and executing on their gameplan cannot go down forever. Eventually they find a bottom and bounce. The lower the bottom, the bigger the bounce.
This week we bounced....
This past week saw yet another ugly market for micro-caps as the whole investment community seems to be increasingly worried about inflation and interest rates. Between this and the fact that there was no gas at the pumps in...
Okay, I was early. I admit it. But, unless growth stocks never rally again, biotech in particular, I'm 100% convinced that buying at these levels is absolutely the right thing to be doing.
Check out where my stocks are trading...
There are times when stock picking isn't the most important part of your investment strategy. When all that matters is being in the right sector of the market. At those times, traders are looking great and investors, those of...
Earlier this year I was preaching caution. The markets were en fuego and, simply put, this cannot last. While I run pretty fully invested and am looking for long-term gains, I'm not naive. Most people reading this newsletter aren't...
Last week I wrote about INmune Bio (INMB). In that piece, In Defense of INmune, I discussed the increasing spread between perception of what's going at INmune versus the reality. On Friday it seems someone noticed as the stock...
I invest in "public venture capital" stocks. The typical company around here is early stage, has no revenue and is burning cash on a daily basis. They are not without risk.
On the other hand, the potential for each of...
My wife and I spent Good Friday in the car, driving up to Massachusetts to visit my number one newsletter fan; my mother. It was a long day but certainly well worth the effort.
The drive was eerily reminiscent of...
Investing in micro-caps always involves a high degree of risk. This risk can come in many different forms as well. For example, looking at the Risk Factors section on TFF Pharma (TFFP)'s recent 10-K filing they have the following...
My Investment Style...It's Not For Everyone But It Works For Me
I'm often asked why I don't trade more often. Many of my stocks make big (25-50% or more) moves and I sit on my hands. Hopefully this helps explain...
I've always thought that technical analysts were like lawyers; you can always find one who will tell you what you want to hear.
That said, there are some technical indicators that I believe have merit in helping at times of...
Good Morning Vietnam!
Okay, I'll confess to exaggerating a little; I neither live nor work in a war zone. It only just felt like someone was taking napalm to my portfolio on a daily basis the last couple weeks....
Many people commented that I took a good week to be on vacation, what with the market (especially in micro-cap growth) being decimated. Nothing could be further from the truth.
The reality is, despite being a long-term investor, I spent...
The past year has been all about the pandemic. First it was about selling everything. Like every other market meltdown, it was viewed as the end of the world. But, we all know the Fed's policy going forward is...
When I started in this business in the 1980s, "Heard on the Street" was a market moving column in the Wall Street Journal. R. Foster Winans, the writer at that time, would delve into rumors that were floating around...
This is without a doubt the most amazing market of my career. It's obviously a bull market as indexes continue to head higher. But, within the belly of the beast, it's absolutely rocking and rolling.
Some of the moves taking...
What a crazy way to end a wild month, huh? As GameStop (GME) continued to rally in the face of shorts, Robin Hood required a bailout and individual investors rejoiced in their apparent obliteration of several hedge funds.
The carnage...
When you write a newsletter, being speechless is not a great place to be. However, what I'm seeing in the market right now leaves me without words.
Is the price action unparalleled in history? Quite possibly. But it sure does...
Frequently I hear from investors that something sounds, "too good to be true." And, being honest, more often than not, that's the case. But, not always...
I heard that frequently about Atomera (ATOM) when I said it's possible to extrapolate...
Nothing seems to be able to get in the way of this bull market. An insurrection in DC? Yawn. The next administration taking on big tech? Nobody cares. Covid-19 running crazy globally? That just means more stimulus and Robin...
Can I breathe now? Seriously, I think I held my breath the last three weeks of 2020 just hoping that nothing would derail the market heading into the year's end and that wish was granted. In the most unexpected...
They say the best presents come in small packages, right? Well, Santa is delivering this year in a big way. And, the best gifts he's giving investors are in the smallest stocks. We are in the middle of a...
This week saw a continued rally in the market with smaller stocks continuing their outperformance. It has been an impressive run and looks likely, as I mentioned last week, to continue until we get a stimulus package. At that...
That certainly was a crazy week. The news from our companies was positive, the news on the CoronaVirus was negative, volatility within our coverage universe continues to uptick and the small cap rally doesn't want to end. It all...
November was truly a month to remember for the markets. The best month in over 40 years for the Russell 2000 saw that index climb a whopping 18%. This outpaced the S&P and Nasdaq as smaller companies are really...
Thanksgiving is usually a time to gather with friends and family to celebrate life. My favorite holiday of the year, it was always a time to reconnect with my cousins who I hadn't seen since the summer. Good food,...
As most of my readers know, I reserve Saturday mornings for writing my weekly newsletter. This week, however, Saturday morning marks the arrival of all our worldly possessions, as the Atlas Van Lines truck is meant to arrive then....
What do Donald Trump and I have in common? We are both in the process of moving...
This week we found out that Joe Biden will become the next president of the US. Simultaneously, the Mr. and Mrs. Carlson jumped...
What do I want to say? That's the question that comes into my head every Saturday morning. This newsletter is an opportunity. An opportunity to send a message to thousands of readers. It's a privilege that I don't take...
Small and micro-cap stocks have underperformed the market for quite a while now. Since I started Tailwinds in August of 2016, the Russell 2000 has underperformed the S&P 500 every year. The cumulative effect is a total return of...
Having survived the rocky cliffs of Moab, I think I jinxed myself with last week's cover photo asking "What could go wrong?" Turns out we learned the answer on Monday as just about everything in our universe got taken...
Having written a newsletter for almost 200 consecutive weeks, I didn't want to miss this week. But, I am mountain biking in Moab Utah, beat to heck from the trails and possibly a little hungover from the 5% beer....
Like the debate, 2020 has been a sh**-show. Pandemics, political divisiveness, fires...it's not been a beach party to say the least.
Yet, here we stand at the end of Q3 with the S&P having climbed 8.5% in the quarter and...
After fortuitously sheltering in place on the east coast for seven weeks, we are heading back for CA this week. We seem to have, very thankfully, missed the smoke and clear skies await. Now, if we can survive the...
The easiest way to make money in the market is trading off of insider information. It is also highly illegal, will put you in jail and I really don't recommend it. It's effective in the short term, but truly...
What a difference a week makes. Last Saturday I was writing about an epic (for Tailwinds) stretch of performance and salivating over all the positive catalysts that were on deck for September. This week I'm shellshocked by the sudden...
Okay, I know it's not the official end of August...that takes place on Monday. However, due to the fact that the month is basically over and September will be close to a week over by the next newsletter, I'm...
Telehealth was the all the rage this past week. First The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is proposing changes to expand telehealth permanently, consistent with the Executive Order on Improving Rural and Telehealth Access that President Trump...
Here I am on my first plane flight since Covid became a word used in our everyday vernacular. Things seem pretty much the same with the exception of everyone wearing a face mask. The irony in this is I...
With social distancing the norm, the 4th of July was much quieter than normal this year. However, in the stock market, the second half of 2020 is starting off with a bang. And, at Tailwinds, so far we have...
With June closing out, we can now reflect on what was the best quarter the stock market has seen since the turn of the century. From the depths of despair to seeing the indexes recoup most if not all...
Having just about reached the halfway point of 2020, I can honestly say I'll never forget the last six months. At times I wish I could.
Markets seem to be focusing on how quickly (slowly?) the economy and employment bounces...
When you receive this newsletter, it will be June 21st, the official start of summer. Typically for stocks you have a summer doldrums, "sell in May and go away" being the mantra that long-time traders have bandied about for...
Perhaps it's because I've not seen the barber during the pandemic, but the market has me left me scratching my head. Some recent stock price movements are bizarre at best and often completely disconnected from reality. Case in point,...
The world of micro-cap is full of little stocks with big ideas. It seems like a large number of these companies have no sales, but can project a total addressable market in the hundreds of millions. Opportunities abound in...
As if on cue, the market took a turn lower last week. This will be but a quick note on the market, as I'm not sure how much value I can add. That is, if you've read my newsletters...
The market continues to ignore my bearish calls and, instead, keeps chugging higher. I'm at a loss to explain this, as are most professional investors with whom I speak. Here in my home of Marin County, we expect restaurants...
Well, I've been expecting it and it appears that it's here. The market put up one of its best months ever in April, but starting on Thursday my anticipated end of the rally kicked off. I'm saying it here...
While the markets may not have had the most volatile week of the year, nor come close, it was a very topsy-turvy five days for Tailwinds. A couple stocks up over 30% and a couple down over 50%. Meanwhile,...
Another great week in the market. The economy is in free-fall, unemployment is skyrocketing and stocks can't stop going up. How is this possible? Well, as many savvy investors have repeated numerous times over the years, don't fight the...
My biggest concern last fall was, "what if Bernie gets into office?" This fear was driven partially by the fact that the market would likely sell off with the democratic socialist in charge, but more so by the concern...
My Take on The Market
This was a good week in the market, which was a welcome relief. We had a big bailout announced by the federal government and some estimates of how bad COVID19 could be came down a...
Normally I love my Saturday mornings. This is when I write the weekly newsletter and it gives me a chance to review the prior week in the market and look for meaningful insight into our companies and what investors...
With the market taking a further beating from CoronaVirus fears, we could all use a little good news. So, I'll enthrall y'all with the little bit of enjoyment in my life after another not so enjoyable week in the...
This feels like a very strange time in the market. Usually markets overreact to news. Violent swings to extreme levels are the common occurrence around major market moving events. The coronavirus would appear to be one of these situations....
Lots going on in Tailwinds' universe recently. Here I recap conversations and observations from the prior week's trading...
This screen shot says it all...if Druck loves small cap, then I'm saying we're in the right space at the right time.
HyreCar...
Although I was aware of the trend towards E.S.G investing, I didn't understand the true magnitude of it until the recent action in Tesla. Lots of people tell me that Tesla went up on its own and that E.S.G....
On Thursday this week, as we finished dinner I looked out the window and the sky was on fire. It was quite possibly the most amazing sunset I've seen from our house and was a great way to end...
New Years always brings out the prognosticator in all of us. Everyone likes to predict what the market will do, what sectors will shine and their favorite stock for the coming 52 weeks. I'm no different, having given out...
Technological progress benefits all of humanity in terms of lifespans and health, the ability to travel and communicate—the whole cornucopia of goods and services that have become increasingly available in the last five hundred years. The rise of the...
What a difference a year makes. Christmas 2018 marked a time of anguish for investors. The market was in the toilet and, for us small cap investors, it was particularly painful. There seemed to be zero bids out there...
The name Tailwinds does not come, as is commonly assumed by many readers, from my love of sailing. An understandable assumption, based on our sailboat logo, but the reality is I get seasick the second I go below deck...
LA is usually a great place to be in December, compared to the rest of the nation. With the weather being generally sunny and mild, it's the perfect place for a conference. The last few years, having brought both...
The market seems took a little hit this week, then bounced back. The net result of which was the wind coming out of the recent micro-cap rally. This is likely a temporary setback as valuations remain much cheaper and...
The other day a reader was kind enough to send me a video of a terrific interaction between two hedge fund legends. Last month, Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones sat down at the Greenwich Economic Forum to discuss a variety...
Those who know me well are well aware that Wednesdays are my favorite night of the week. That's the night I go out mountain biking with The Gestalt Haus Gang, ending up at a similarly-named (mountain) biker bar tipping...
The last couple weeks have seen a slew of earnings reports and, more importantly, investor update calls from companies in the Tailwinds Universe. Importantly for investors, the market has seemingly righted itself for the smaller companies as good news...
Back in the days of VHS, we had a grand total of two movies in my house for several of my formative years. The Road Warrior and Trading Places. Featuring two of the all-time greats, Mel Gibson and Eddy...
Going into writing this week's newsletter, I had no idea where to go with it. There's a lot happening in the world, a lot going on in micro-cap, and a lot churning around inside my head. The point being...
Greetings from Stresa Italy, a gorgeous town on the edge of Lake Maggiore. With great food, excellent wines and friendly people, Italy is always a great place to relax. This is especially true during times of market weakness, as...
I tend to be very much a buy and hold investor. I take positions, add to them as I gain confidence and generally let them ride. I do add to stocks on weakness and will trim some into strength....
Much of the analysis and forecasting work that I do on the markets revolves around the S&P 500 Index, the basket of 500 blue chip larger cap companies widely followed. The reason being is that index has quite a...
The path to being a good investor is to be able to see what the future holds and place your bets accordingly. If you can do so often, you'll have a portfolio of winners. It's an easy game, right?
There...
This past month is best described as tricky. July is often that way for investors. Volumes are light and traders tend to take time off before earnings season starts up. This results in volatility that, oftentimes in micro-cap companies,...
It's approaching the three-year anniversary of Tailwinds Research. A model that started out as a blog site for paid-for research has morphed into a multi-tentacled platform that incorporates money management and premium service. As the model has changed, and...
Greetings from Rockport Mass, my home town and where I'm fortunate enough to be spending a couple weeks visiting family and working from an office with a view of the ocean. A view that has been calling me frequently...
As we round out the first half of 2019, I'd like to wish a happy early birthday to America. The last six months were, for investors, certainly a gift. After a truly disastrous end to 2018, we have had...
In what is shaping up as a never-ending quest to provide newsletter coverage from anyplace not named "home", this week's letter comes from Raleigh, NC. I'm here to keep my daughter company for the weekend as she is toiling...
Technology has become the main battleground in the Sino-US rivalry. The trade war must be viewed in that context. This is why, despite of the US’s push and market’s hope, a compromise at the forthcoming G-20 in Tokyo is unlikely. If China...
I'm not sure why, but it seems that every time I feel the Tailwinds' Portfolio is poised for big gains, the market enters a swoon. This time, thanks to the ratcheting up of trade tension, we looked ready for...
Take your pick, Macro or Micro, this was a week full of impactful news. It was also a great week for Tailwinds as our stories around our stocks seem to be coming together in real time. This drove a...
I'm not a big fan of getting involved in stocks with big short positions. Short sellers, in general, are very smart investors. They do their homework and are usually right a lot more often than they are wrong.
They are...
One of the oldest adages for investors is "don't fight the fed". When the government wants to open the spigots, easy money and high liquidity will push the market higher. If you want a 1st quarter recap, that's it...
The markets are celebrating the pending agreement between China and the United States to end the trade war. This follows the US Federal Reserve signalling a pause in raising interest rates.
The euphoria is bringing the bulls out of hiding....
As I look out my window, the first few flowers are appearing on the branches of my tree. Despite the torrential rains of last week, with more to come, spring is starting to make its appearance. And, with the...
This morning I received an email from a good friend. In it he had taken all the names that I've covered over the 30 months that Tailwinds has been around and ranked them into categories. Now we can argue...
Sometimes it's an enlightening event to rank stocks based on different criteria. Digging into numbers can reveal interesting trends and help hone your future investing skills. This is especially true around times of extreme volatility, when a lot of...
What a difference a couple weeks makes, huh? Lest you forget, it was less than three weeks ago that the market bottomed. That day was December 24th, which means that my predicted Santa Claus rally did indeed occur, just...
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. It was definitely a December to remember." ~ me
When someone asks if I want the good news or the bad news, I always choose the bad news...
This weekend I'm with my wife and daughter in New York City. Doing some holiday shopping, seeing family and friends and catching a show. The city, as always, is wonderfully decked out for the holiday season. Looking...
Thanksgiving has always been my favorite holiday. As a kid living on the beach in Rockport Mass, I was surrounded by family all summer. Then, school would start and we’d go our separate ways. Thanksgiving always brought my extended...
If there is a deal , it will be on Trump’s terms, not on Wall Street’s terms…Trump has done an amazing job. He doesn’t need the help of Wall Street, he doesn’t need the help of Goldman Sachs.
The mission...
I’ve witnessed several market corrections in my life. Some of these are minor blips in the face of a bull market, while others are more severe. The most painful corrections, the crashes and terrible bear markets, have all had...
By necessity, today’s topic will venture into the world of politics, so I warn you now - you might be offended. Actually, I have decided to cut jabs at all politicians, so if you feel like your team has...
I love holiday weeks. It seems like I'm just getting settled into work when Friday happily rolls around. I wish every week was a four day week. Yet, when it comes down to writing a newsletter, four day weeks...
Earnings season for microcaps came and went during the month of August. Well, we call it earnings season but, when you're betting on future leaders with disruptive business models, they tend to be early stage. Which means it's more...
Phew! Am I ever glad to get earnings season over with. Trying to keep up with all the calls and the incredible volatility in the portfolio can be overwhelming and this last week encapsulated all this for me. Throw...
Friday was the most exciting day yet in the Tour de France, with the Pyrenees separating the contenders from the pretenders. I had thought this Tour would be a boring tour de force for Chris Froome, however, just when...
Normally I try to have my lead story be something about the big picture. Whether that be the Tailwinds' portfolio, micro-caps in general, or the overall market, the idea is to develop a top-down piece that can add additional...
I don’t know about you, but I’m worried. The economic cycle is long in the tooth. Equity valuations are stretched. The yield curve is flattening. Emerging markets and other liquidity-sensitive markets are sagging. The Federal Reserve is raising rates...
For those who have read my previous notes on Bitcoin, I'm sure you're wondering what's the scoop here. I've been a vocal bear on Bitcoin, calling the top pretty well and consistently saying that I believe it's a bubble...
"You f…g Americans. Who are you to tell us, the rest of the world, that we’re not going to deal with Iranians?"
Richard Meddings, Standard Chartered’s Finance Director, said in 2012
America under Donald Trump is emerging as the global bully....
Andy Xie is an independent economist who has graciously allowed Tailwinds to post his articles.
The United States’ tit-for-tat tariff spat over steel and aluminium with its Nafta partners and the European Union is another nail in the coffin for...
Small cap stocks are paying beginning to pay off handsomely, with significant outperformance of late. The index we watch the most, and what we aim to beat, is the Russell 2000. Looking at the Russell versus the S&P 500...
Quarterly earnings season is the four times each year in which companies give investors an inside look as to what's going on. They not only reveal their sales and profits, but, typically, they provide guidance (either specifically or in...
You had to know that last week’s Barron’s cover was too good for me to pass up. Come’ on. It’s just screaming at me to write a post.
It’s like Lindsay Lohan attending a celebrity vodka launch event - you...
Two weeks ago I made an adjustment to the grips on my mountain bike. Rolled them forward a little bit. I had been feeling a little numb on the downhills and rumor was this would create the proper alignment,...
Tailwinds Research was started with the simple goal of helping investors make money in micro-cap stocks. Over the last year and a half, there have been many successes and several missteps, but we’ve certainly accomplished our overall goal, generating...
I hope what I’m about to say turns out to be too pessimistic and very wrong. But as an alternative scenario it must be considered.
Right now, the smart money says a trade war with China Is not going to...
I consider myself a sentiment trader. Which is, of course, a very highly technical term that I made up to describe my investing style. For, while fundamentals are at the core of every position I have, there's a lot...
I spent a lot of time in Romania during the early 2000's, helping companies privatize. There was a ton of opportunity to acquire older, cash flowing, businesses at reasonable valuations. However, most locals weren't so interested in this...instead, the...
It was about a month ago that President Trump first warned us. Having finally figured out he had considerable power to affect trade policy, Trump went on the offensive.
As I always promise, I will leave politics aside and refrain...
The stock market roller coaster has continued this week, with the market moving well in excess of 300 points on the Dow every single day. This kind of volatility is enough to make investors dizzy. It also will likely...
What really makes China so scary today is the fact that it has so many people, and it's also becoming an incredibly wealthy country so that our great fear is that China will turn into a giant Hong Kong....
I've been preaching about increased volatility for months now. The days of easy money driving up all assets is firmly in the rear view mirror. Instead, we now have markets without unlimited underlying bids supporting every minor downdraft.
For those...
That hereafter no State court or court of the United States shall admit Chinese to citizenship; and all laws in conflict with this act are hereby repealed. (Sec.14)
...
What a true bond bear market looks like
A couple of years ago I remember having a discussion with a hedge fund manager. I told him about my theory that the next big surprise would be higher bond rates, not...
The Trump administration has finally put some teeth into its America First rhetoric, imposing tariffs on big washing machines from South Korea and solar panels from China. A hefty tariff on Chinese steel is being floated while Chinese aluminium...
Stock markets have of late dropped about 10 percent from the peak. If you think that’s bad, you ain’t seen nothing yet. What happened is small beer. A real collapse is much worse. In 1997/98, the Hang Seng Index...
What a difference a week makes. Two weeks ago the air was one with despair. Stocks bonds, the dollar, Bitcoin...all were crashing down around us. Then the stock market put up its best week since 2013, the dollar bounced,...
The beach at Manele Bay on the island of Lana’i, where we were fortunate enough to spend the last week, is a wonderful spot. Whales breach just offshore, spinner dolphins play in the waves and the sun is always...
For at least the first half of the 21st century, the US-China relationship will be the number one concern for investors, statesmen, global militaries and indeed, humanity in general. Things are not going to be easy. The US and...
As I type this article, Bitcoin is flirting with entering a bear market. This week's newsletter highlights three relatively underfollowed, or misunderstood, stories in the background. Each of which alone virtually guarantees the arrival of a bear market. Together,...
In 1914 the Europeans (including the British) ruled the world. Their empires spanned the globe, their culture reigned supreme, financially they were the center of the world, their science was a marvel and they had convinced themselves and a...
I have often said that as traders, it is not our job to pass judgment on what should be, but, instead, to take advantage of what is. I will try to stick to that mantra when discussing the US tax “reform” package, but...
Today’s post is an important one. I might have put Grandma in the trunk, but the coming struggle between generations is no laughing matter. It very well might end up being the defining theme for financial markets in coming...
On December 14th the FCC Open Meeting is going to vote on whether or not to retain Net Neutrality. Being as how the FCC's chairman is strongly against retaining it, Net Neutrality will be ending shortly after the vote.
In...
Peter Treadway is the author of The Dismal Optimist and graciously allows Tailwinds to republish his blog pieces.
Recently, it seemed like the stock market had parked the tech sector in a penalty box of boredom while the old dogs of...
The day after Thanksgiving is referred to as Black Friday. This is because, up until then, many retailers have operated at a loss all year. Then, the start of the holiday rush puts them "in the black" as they...
A Ponzi scheme (/ˈpɒn.zi/; also a Ponzi game) is a fraudulent investment operation where the operator generates returns for older investors through revenue paid by new investors, rather than from legitimate business activities. ~ Wikipedia
As a grizzled old vet of investing (I started...
Think back six months. Do you remember all the warnings from the legendary hedge fund managers about the impending stock market doom? Paul Tudor Jones, Scott Minerd, Larry Fink, Seth Klarman, the list is long but distinguished. At the time...
by Peter Treadway, a Tailwinds' contributor
The Chinese way of running their economic system is quite brilliant. I tip my hat to them.
To avoid a trade war, China must cease its economic war against America.
Quotes from Steven Bannon, Trump...
While I'm writing this article, Hurricane Irma is bearing down on Florida, bringing its 175 MPH winds and huge storm surge to the low-lying state. Thankfully, forecasters foresaw its path and there have been massive evacuations. We can only...
Well, we still have one more day of (slow) trading before Labor Day, however I feel comfortable in saying goodbye to the Dog Days of Summer. Don't get me wrong, from Tailwinds' perspective it has been a very good...
We espouse two themes at Tailwinds Research. The first theme is that small cap stocks should be a piece of your portfolio and, when picking small caps, we look for companies that are developing disruptive technologies. Ideas that will...
With the gong show occurring in Washington, it’s amazing anyone has the courage to write a blue ticket for any American assets. But we have to remember that the big long term money is slow moving. Implementing an asset...
"There is a military option: to destroy North Korea’s nuclear program and North Korea itself…If there is going to be a war to stop him (Kim Jong-un), it will be over there. If thousands die, they are going to...
Most investors feel that they can't beat the returns of the market by picking their own stocks. History has shown us, and index fund marketing reiterates this all the time, that active managers' returns trail that of the overall...
The markets are at an analytical crossroad. Central banks around the world have all signaled that their bouts of monetary largess will be coming to an end. Assuming the central banks really carry this out, for many this is...
My mentor from summers working on the Boston Stock Exchange, Geno Eng, used to always remind me of one simple fact of trading. "Markets go up, markets go down." He repeated this mantra consistently, which is what helped him...
I love Amazon. I have a Prime account and hardly a day goes by without a box showing up on our doorstep. The convenience is unbeatable, the service is outstanding, and the pricing is virtually unbeatable. Plus, when you...
The path to liquidity for tech companies used to follow a very simple model. Raise money privately, build up sales and earnings, then go public with a splashy IPO. This worked well until the big Y2K tech bubble, during...
Since issuing the last Dismal Optimist on May 12, tech stocks roared upward. That is until the afternoon of Friday June 9 when tech stocks in the absence of any specific negative news had what can be called a...
Yesterday the Federal Reserve hiked rates .25%. It is the second time they have tightened this year. And Yellen even laid out the foundation of "quantitative tightening" (QT), which is their beginning to unwind the Fed's $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
How did...
In a widely anticipated move, President Trump abandoned the Paris Climate Agreement this week. Widely hailed as a landmark agreement that would set in place the structure to slow climate change, Trump believed it was overly restrictive on the...
Every July, for two straight weeks, they run bulls through the streets of Pamplona, Spain. The bulls are strong and fast, basically cutting a path down the narrow streets like a hot knife through warm butter. Everyone gets out...
Two months ago we went to Italy to celebrate our 25th wedding anniversary. The Mrs. and I love to travel to Europe and have been doing so since 1996. At various times Europe has seemed relatively reasonable or expensive, based...
In the last month, the market cap of Tesla raced past that of Ford and has nudged up against the value of GM. All while producing only a fraction as many cars and being nowhere close to making a...
This past week, our Tweeter in Command, President Trump, turned his attention to Canada. Whereas in the past, getting the President’s attention wasn’t necessarily a bad thing, under the current administration it’s like having the school’s loudspeaker call you...
J C Penney is closing 138 stores.
The Limited is closing all 250 stores.
Macy's is closing 68 stores.
Radio Shack is closing 552 stores.
Sears/Kmart is closing 150 stores.
Payless may close 1,000 stores.
What kind of future are we to expect?
Next we'll be...
Well, we've come to the end of the 1st quarter and it has ended with a bang. As of today, the Select Portfolio is up over 30% since inception with the average stock up 20%. This is the result...
The end of the first quarter always coincides with the end of March Madness. The frenzied first two weeks of the NCAA tournament are over and we are down to only 8 teams remaining. These teams have all positioned...
This year is our 25th wedding anniversary and, to celebrate, we are heading over to Europe. A big trip to celebrate a big anniversary. And, a trip that’s quite interesting in the timing, in that we are heading over...
“At our meeting later this month, the Committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate.”
Fed watchers...
The great news about small and micro cap stocks is that they outperform the market. Significantly. According to AQR Capital, such firms have outperformed the broader stock market indexes by almost five percentage points a year over time. This...
Hillary Clinton announced her candidacy 544 days before the election. One week into his presidency, Donald Trump continues to dominate the headlines and Twitter feeds. As a caring citizen, I’ve been involved in many conversations, debates and even arguments...
Sometime in the next few months Snapchat will go public. This event is destined to be one of the biggest stock market stories of the year, as it will not only determine whether or not the overall IPO market...
Last night my buddy James and I went for a night ride. We headed out for Pine Mountain, a challenging ride on a good day and one that was certain to be a muddy slog after the recent drought-ending...
The first conference of 2017 is also one of the largest and most important. Still taking place in the hopelessly inappropriately sized Westin St. Francis, in San Francisco, the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference helps to set the tone for...
As I sat in the airport, about to leave Cabo for the rainy reality of Northern California, I wanted to take a victory lap for last year’s prediction of Oil being the best asset class. I mean, up 45%!...
Economic cycles are, by definition, cyclical, as are markets. Much as the sun warms the earth during the day, then things cool at night, economies have their alternating periods of growth and stumbles. As an investor, it pays to...
Short term, I’m very bullish on the stock market. We have, of course, the “January Effect”, a yearly phenomenon in which the market generally trades higher for the first 5 days of January. Then there’s the natural “End of...
Sometimes it pays to be in the right place at the right time. The guy whose seat gets called for the million-dollar half-court shot. Jed Clampett misfiring at his dinner and hitting Texas Tea. Donald Trump winning the election...
After several years of overproduction and weak prices, oil bottomed in 2016. At $51 a barrel, oil is up over 37% during 2016 and is trading almost double from the lows set in February. However, as we approach the end...