Sometimes it's a head-scratcher as to where to start my newsletter. In this case, I'm feeling mighty repetitive in leading off with Kazia (KZIA). Yet, the stock continues to be both my largest holding and my best performer. Therefore,...
The TW portfolio gained another 10% this past week. We can add that to the prior week’s 15% and the one before that’s 40%. This rally taking place is epic.
What makes this bull market more fun, for us in...
Last week’s newsletter headline was “Letting It Ride,” where I talked about the blackjack style of my first boss, Geno Eng. His rule was simple: let your winners ride for two more hands. He played for three straight wins,...
When I started trading on the Boston Stock Exchange in the summer of 1987, one of my bosses was a very interesting Chinese man named Geno Eng. Geno was a consummate gambler besides being a trader. His favorite game...
The past week was an excellent one in the market, as hopes arose for a speedy end to the war. As I said last week, my ability to predict when the war will end is not why you read...
Markets had a bounce this past week from their oversold level. But, with a couple planes going down over Iran, does anyone believe that the trend has reversed? I'm not going to make big market predictions other than sticking...
I've been negative on the market and nothing I'm reading in the news is giving me reason to change my opinion on a week-to-week basis. As long as the war continues, the market will go lower.
As readers know, I'm...
They say that good Texas Hold 'Em players fold on 80% of the hands. The key to the game is patience. As Kenny Rogers said, "you have to know when to hold them, know when to fold them."
Good investors...
When I first started trading stocks, Microsoft had just gone public. So, yeah, it was a very long time ago...
At that time, trading was actually easy. News would come out and get disseminated quite slowly. A stock, or the...
This past month was like day 3 at Augusta...Moving Day. Some stocks climbed the leaderboard while others crashed to earth. At the Masters, it's all about positioning yourself for a shot at the green jacket. In the market, it's...
The whole world is talking about the Supreme Court's decision on Trump's tariffs. I have no value to add here so will instead spend this week writing about a lot of my little companies and my current thoughts around...
I've had a long-standing crush on Aeluma (ALMU) for a couple of years now. With its groundbreaking photonics technology, the company stands to benefit from major semiconductor trends, including mobile SWIR imaging and AI infrastructure demands. Validation from respected...
Markets wasted no time reminding everyone that January optimism doesn’t come with guarantees. The first full week of February delivered renewed volatility, uneven leadership, and a noticeable shift in tone, especially in tech. None of this is unusual, but...
The AI boom is real. Artificial intelligence is reshaping the global economy in real time. Companies are becoming more profitable as employee productivity rises, and the earnings impact is showing up quarter after quarter.
The hard-asset boom is also real....
Aloha from Oahu—still! What was supposed to be a brief Hawaiian escape has turned into an extended paradise stay, and I’m not mad about it one bit. The weather here is spectacular: blue skies, warm trade winds, perfect surf,...
Have you ever been in rush hour traffic when there's that one guy who lane changes constantly. Back and forth, cutting everyone off. And, in the end, accomplishing nothing as they get there no sooner than you did. It's...
Two thousand and twenty five ended with a big party yet there seems to be nothing resembling a hangover. Instead, the confetti has yet to hit the ground and the bar remains open. In short, the bull market is...
I'm just back from Florida, which is a long drive from our hometown of Charlottesville. The last two weeks have seen the birth of my first grandchild and the wedding of my daughter on New Year's Eve. If that's...
It's the holiday season and the markets continue to be in a very giving mood. It's setting up for a great end to the year and investors are certainly going to be celebrating this New Years Eve.
However, markets don't...
As I sit to write this week's newsletter, I have a lot of thoughts going through my head. The volatility in the portfolio has been extreme and the number of trades I've been making has reached a level never...
Back from Thanksgiving in Massachusetts and it seems like I brought the cold weather home with me. Snow is covering the ground here in central Virginia and temperatures in the teens at night are definitely unseasonably cold for December....
Volatility reigned in the markets this week as several larger themes dictated trading. These trends, with uncertain outcomes, create dramatic swings in stocks. Trading opportunities for those who are nimble and interesting buying opportunities for those of us who...
To start this week's newsletter, a request. If you own shares of INmune Bio (INMB), please vote on the recent proxy. Vote however you'd like, but do cast your ballot. We need more votes to hit a quorum. Thank...
In the high-stakes arena of public markets, a company's success isn't just about innovative products, sharp management, or even blockbuster earnings reports. It's increasingly about who holds the purse strings. For publicly traded firms, the composition of their investor...
I've been writing about Vicor (VICR) fairly frequently of late, having established a small position in the stock in the late spring. The company's business for the last few years has been one of great promise that always seemed...
As I wrote last weekend, I had four of my college friends in town for three days. We had a blast, playing golf, shooting skeets, drinking a few beers and catching up on each other's lives. It had been...
We are in an AI bubble. It could keep going for a while or we may have hit the pinnacle. I'm not sure when it ends but taking positions down into strength makes sense to me.
In a sign of...
The rally in micro-caps continues. To bang again on a drum that I've beaten fairly frequently, interest rates drive speculation and we have entered a rate-lowering environment. Check out the chart of the Russell 2000...it's been heading straight up...
The prospect of lower rates drove stocks higher all summer. Perhaps this is a case of be careful what you wish for; we had the first rate cut a little over a week ago and this past week the...
Summer is over. When this week's newsletter goes out, it will be September 21st, the official end of the season. For many investors, this is likely a double whammy...not only is the beach weather gone but the market was...
Is this Russell ready for a breakout? While large cap stocks have been the dominant performers in the market for the last few years (or is it decades?), the R2K is quietly approaching the highs set in 2022. Check...
Gold had been trading in a tight band since April. Bouncing back and forth between (roughly speaking) $3,200 and $3,400 per ounce. That trading range ceased to exist as of last week with the precious metal breaking out on...
aTyr Pharma (ATYR) is going to report data from their pivotal trial sometime in the next few weeks (official guidance is mid-September). This has been a highly controversial stock with many smart biotech funds long, countered by an equally...
As readers know, I have been bullish on a cyclical turn in biotech for a while now. Starting last fall, I felt that the group had underperformed for too long. Throw in a more accommodative FDA and declining interest...
As we get closer to a rate cut (odds are now ~95%), the micro-cap growth and biotechs are starting to attract more interest. Orphaned for a few years during rising rates, these stocks are suddenly starting to actually work....
The market continues to act great and many stocks are making nice moves. It's really game on in micro-caps. With a number of catalysts coming up, here's a list (in no particular order) of what I think looks interesting...
I'm not sure about the rest of you, but I'm over the tariff news. Each week it's new tariffs or a delay in the tariffs. I've taken to ignoring them as it seems the whole of the market has...
"Catch a wave and you're sitting on top of the world!" ~ the Beach Boys
Here we are in the middle of summer and the market's temperature is soaring. It's a veritable heat dome for risk assets. The Trump Trade...
When Trump, along with Robert Kennedy as his point person, started remaking the FDA, there was a lot of concern. "With massive layoffs, would the notoriously slow agency move at an even slower pace?" seemed to be the most...
I'm back to muggy Virginia, having spent two weeks in Seattle and Jackson Hole. Vacation in the day of the internet is not exactly a chance to escape work and INmune Bio (INMB) certainly kept me busy. More on...
The S&P 500 hit a new high this week. Let that sink in for a minute...
A new high in the market despite a trade war with tariffs that economists predicted would derail the US economy and spark massive inflation....
Today (Saturday, as I write this newsletter) is summer solstice, the longest day of the year. From here on out the daylight decreases as does the time to major catalysts within TW's universe. Last week I discussed a lot...
Volatility is back. After watching every attempted rally get squashed for several years, it now appears that some micro-cap stocks can actually move higher. It's still a selective market but, for those companies who are executing well, investors are...
We are approaching the halfway point of 2025 and it's playing out somewhere near the lines that I predicted. I was looking for a volatile market in 2025 with stocks likely down overall. At this stage, the S&P 500...
The last couple weeks I've suggested selling into the rally that is taking place. One very smart fund manager who I follow has been doing just that. He also writes a newsletter and has generously allowed me to quote...
Last week I wrote about selling the rally. The economy is slowing and inflation isn't going away. It's a trader's market and moves need to be faded. Last week's weakness in the markets fell right in line with my...
This is a classic trader's market. Every move is temporary and gets reversed. Just a few short weeks ago I suggested that the Trump Tariff Tantrum, which was crushing the stock market, would be ancient history later this year....
Just back from an epic trip to Montenegro, Croatia and Italy. And, for once, the markets were rather sanguine, if not actually really positive, for TW during my absence. I wasn't ready to come home and most investors probably...
Markets staged a nice rally this week (I'm writing this Friday morning so I hope this holds true by the end of the day). The rally was sparked by what seems to be a calming down somewhat of trade...
Confusion continues to reign in the world of investing. There is, however, one notable exception. With multiple gaps in the upward direction over the past couple weeks, GOLD has been making a firm move in one direction for over...
What a crazy roller coaster ride the market was on this past week. Last week I predicted the market opening lower on Monday and that being a turning point. And, that's exactly what happened. The VIX is a great...
Trump's tariffs were announced this week and the markets decided they didn't like them. What I find most interesting is how even the markets, which are meant to be a discounting mechanism, can't predict Trump's actions. Such a violent...
Markets tried to rally this week and failed. As readers know, I've been predicting a correction for a while and I believe we are in the middle of it. I believe it gets worse before it gets better. But,...
Markets bounced nicely on Friday but it was another down week overall. The fourth in a row. It feels really bad right now yet the S&P is down around 10% from its all-time high. A very minor correction indeed....
According to my browser's A.I., "The bloom is off the rose" means that something has lost its freshness, novelty, or excitement; it's no longer as appealing or interesting as it once was, like a rose that has faded after...
It was another tough week in the market, especially for smaller stocks. The S&P is now down for the year, being led in this direction by the Russell 2000. It's rapidly turning into a risk-off environment, as one can...
Almost two months into 2025 and chaos reigns in DC as DOGE axes bureaucrats and executive orders fly fast and furious. Meanwhile, our allies are in a similar state of confusion as the US foreign policy is changing course...
Having just returned from Canada, I feel fortunate to have gone there before the One Day Tariff War. Two weeks ago they still liked Americans. Now, it's anyone's guess.
As we sit approximately 10% (already?!?) of the way through 2025,...
This past week a friend of mine told me he would, "never buy individual biotech stocks again." I could have sworn I heard a distant bell tolling as he did so.
Truth is, there is never a bell ringing at...
Markets got a nice bounce this week on the back of lower than expected CPI for December. This is going to be a very volatile year for the markets with Trump coming into the White House, DOGE trying to...
Last week I wrote about Atomera (ATOM), INmune Bio (INMB) and enVVeno (NVNO), laying out the thesis for each of these catalyst driven companies to have an excellent 2025. If one looks back to the beginning of December, all...
If you're not a fan of volatility, last week was not a good one for you. Coming into the last two days of 2024, the TW portfolio was sitting on a 33% gain for the month of December. That...
Happy New Year!!! I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday season with family and friends. I'm up in chilly Mass. this week with family. With a long drive home coming on Saturday, this Friday evening version of the newsletter...
For a while it appeared that Santa was coming to town. Markets continued to ascend the heights and the Wall Street pundits jumped on board, claiming 2025 was going to be another year of gains for stocks. Betting against...
With Nvidia being the biggest, baddest stock on the planet, it feels like we must be in the middle of a massive semiconductor rally. How could the group not be racing higher, playing follow the leader, to new highs...
I'm not sure where to start this week's newsletter as my head is still reeling from the past week. Should we go big picture or discuss the little stock that imploded? Either way, it's about as enjoyable as getting...
Many investors have compared the current A.I. hype-cycle in the market with the internet bubble back in 2000. At that time there was a "picks and shovels" company (Cisco) printing cash and a lot of other stocks running to...
They say that patience is a virtue. Looking at the news from this past week, I am feeling very virtuous. For our companies, it appears that everything is trending the right way. However, these are long-term trends and, in...
The general tone of the market, as relates to TW's universe, is starting to feel better. I'm seeing upticks in more than a handful of stocks and, with only a few days left, October is looking like a good...
Last week there was no newsletter as I was mountain biking in Downieville, CA. Interesting factoid about Downieville, in 1853 the town was vying to become the capital of California. Happily for CA, that mistake was avoided as Downieville...
The only thing more rare than a 10-bagger in the stock market? A Street analyst suggesting that a stock will be a 10-bagger. Yet, that's just what we saw here last week in aTyr Pharma (ATYR) when Wells Fargo...
They say that a definition of a gold mine is a piece of land with a liar standing on it.
This generally plays out in the markets as a large percentage of all gold exploration companies will never mine an...
This past week, the FED cut interest rates by 50 bps. This was likely the least unexpected rate cut in history, yet stocks took the news positively with the S&P hitting another record high. We just keep chugging along.
Normally,...
There are times when I have high conviction on the market. This is not one of those times.
Twice in the past month and a half, markets have suffered a sudden and steep break to the downside, only to come...
This week the market got the flu. Unfortunately, so did I.
Perhaps the best way to deal with a weak market is from the sick bed...stock price movement didn't seem like the biggest problem I had at the time. Instead...
This weekend I'm heading up to New York to watch the US Open. It's my first time going and I'm super excited. Albeit a little less so when Carlos Alcaraz flamed out of the event in the second round....
The dramatic turnaround in the market after the swoon in early August continued this week with the indexes all making strong moves higher. For the S&P 500, we are within spitting distance of all-time highs.
Driving stocks higher are the...
In the last two weeks we have seen markets collapse, only to rapidly recover lost ground. The spike in the volatility index was indicative of a coming crash. Instead, however, we got by far the fastest drop back to...
Rodney Dangerfield made a fortune out of playing the role of an underappreciated comedian. Famous for the line, "I get no respect," Dangerfield's skits went beyond self-deprecating. Thankfully he chose to be a comedian as he got well paid...
If you watch Texas Hold 'Em on TV, it's exciting. Lots of great hands, crazy bluffs and big pots. The game is exciting and makes you want to go to Vegas. However, believe it or not, reality doesn't exactly...
Small cap stocks continue to put in a great rally, one that was long overdue. This past week saw the Russell 2000 gain 3% while the S&P 500 lost 1%. The pendulum is finally swinging back in the direction...
An interesting week in the markets as the shooting of Donald Trump's ear caused, at least at first, a continuation of the rally we had been seeing in small cap stocks. By the close Tuesday, the R2K had rallied...
What a week in the TW universe. It started out slow with more of the consistent, across the board selling that has come to be the norm for 2024. Then, seemingly out of the blue, a minor rally on...
This week the action in IN8bio (INAB) pretty much sums up the last couple years for growth focused micro-caps. The stock made a nice move into data being presented at the European Hematology Association. The stock had moved from...
This week we had a chance to interview Dr. Harlan Weisman, the CEO of TFF Pharma (TFFP). Dr. Weisman related the current travails at TFF to his experience at Centocor, a biotech company which he helped get off the...
For pre-revenue companies, times are tough. Funding remains incredibly hard to come by and, for those who display any weakness, the markets are simply brutal. After suffering through what some have called the longest bear market in the history...
In San Diego, one might think that June would be one of the best months for weather. You would be partially right. Almost every morning in that part of the world, the heat of the Central Valley brings in...
This weeks newsletter comes from the Valley of the Sun. It's hot already in Phoenix, where they are currently in a stretch of 100+ days. The only thing hotter could be the S&P, which is on a tear.
Adding to...
In March, I wrote the following..
Markets are nothing if not forward looking. Typically, the start discounting events six months in advance. With election day being November 5th, I'm going on record and predicting the stock market starts sputtering in...
Greetings from Sicily, a land of great beauty, great food and great wine. It's a lovely time of year to visit here, neither too hot nor too crowded. We've toured the city streets and climbed the hills to visit...
Markets had another strong week as the bull market continues apace. I continue to be constructive on micro-caps as the relative disparity remains far larger than historical norms. As long as the markets expect rate cuts this year, opportunities...
You ever have that dream where you're being chased and your feet just won't move? You're stuck in the ground and, no matter what you do, you just can't get going. Welcome to the nightmare of micro cap investing.
Despite...
Last weekend we were in Seattle visiting the kids. It was wet and cold, a very typical Seattle winter weekend, kinda similar to what we had been experiencing in Charlottesville.
Upon arrival back in Virginia on Monday, however, the world...
It was a great end to the week as March 1st brought about one of the best days TW has seen. A 6% gain for the portfolio came on a broad based move with every position in the green....
The biggest news around TW's universe last week came in a Tuesday morning press release from enVVeno (NVNO).
Topline Efficacy Data from the enVVeno Medical VenoValve® Pivotal Trial to be Presented at the VENOUS2024 American Venous Forum Annual Meeting on...
It generally pays to take the opposite side of the group consensus. When the analyst community all forecasts the same outcome, it's safe to say that said outcome is already priced into the market. Taking the other side of...
After staring at various charts, returns and other indicators, I have come to the conclusion that January was just different. Of the stocks I follow, three were down around 20% and three were up double digits...with no rhyme or...
It's certainly been an interesting start to 2024 with double digit percentage moves in most stocks I follow. The swings have been strong but the direction varied. Half the movers are up and half down with no real rhyme...
Stocks have started out the new year with a resounding thud. This shouldn't come as a big surprise as the first part of January frequently reverses any late year moves. The market is not cheap, particularly when looking at...
With the holiday season now firmly upon us, I'd like to thank every one of TW's subscribers. The last couple years have been challenging in micro-caps but the strong end to 2023 is a welcome gift as we finish...
For those who remember Carnac The Magnificent, the answer is "management is highly confident".
Back in the dark ages of life before the internet, Johnny Carson was the king of late night television. One of his signature skits was performing...
The turkey hangover can last several hours or even up to a few days. You have overindulged and need to digest for a while before you'll even consider stepping back up to the buffet. But, if you're anything like...
As we head into the home stretch for 2023, the markets are back in rally mode. Performing best is the S&P 500 and Nasdaq as larger cap stocks continue to shine. I have been anticipating the end of the...
Last week, when discussing supply and demand, I wrote that "the landscape is tilted towards lower stock prices." That was certainly the case the last five days as the market took a beating. Suffering more than the average bear...
This weekend's newsletter comes to you from Napa Valley, CA, where Mrs. Carlson and I are attending a wedding. Napa is not a bad place to get married and it's nice to be back in CA for a few...
I have been espousing several themes in this newsletter for quite a while now. These themes are the big picture drivers that impact our ability to make money in the market. This past week was an overall great example...
Last week the average TW stock was down 2.8%, roughly in line with (or slightly better than) the overall market. As a group, the performance was rather muted versus the indexes. However, the individual stock performance reflected anything but...
This past week was dreadfully dull. Volume across the board was anemic and the tone from traders was muted. August may in fact be over but it appears no one told that to the market.
Back in July I wrote...
Sadly, the dog days of summer are over. September is here and investment bankers, traders and most of Europe will be returning to work. The quiet market of August is hopefully a thing of the past and I'm hopeful...
"The single most important thing for me in the stock market
is to know what you own." ~ Peter Lynch
It's tough out there. Markets are trading down on higher rates, volumes are light and apathy seems to rule the day....
Inflation data keeps coming down, analysts continue to see an end to rate increases, yet markets are weak. What gives? My opinion, it all comes down to what Fitch warned about recently; the large and increasing debt level of...
The big news this past week was INmune (INMB)'s earnings release and conference call. Or was it? The stock was down over 10% on Tuesday, following the shareholder update, but finished the week down a whopping 3.4% which is...
TFF Pharma has been a terrible stock. It has gone straight down for longer than I care to remember. I admit to having been wrong on this one so far.
At the time when I first bought the stock the...
When explanations make no senseWhen every answer's wrongYou're fighting with lost confidenceAll expectations gone
If those words from Swing Out Sister's song "Breakout" don't sum up the state of investing in biotech these days, nothing does. Overall, markets are strong...
The Holy Grail is a treasure that serves as an important motif in literature. With mystical powers, the belief is that drinking from this chalice can provide eternal youth and infinite sustenance. In short, everything you could wish for.
In...
Now that we've officially declared "Global Warming" as misleading, having rebranded it to "Climate Change", the world seems to be heating up faster than ever. Both land and ocean temperatures are hitting record highs and the only thing rising...
Holiday weeks are generally the slowest times in the market both in terms of activity and also news flow. With the 4th of July happening mid-week this year, that trend is more pronounced than normal. Yet, there is still...
This week I'm writing about a topic I like to refer to as "Free Call Options". Honestly, the name is a little misleading but the concept works like this; There are stocks whose current valuation is based solely on...
Last week I wrote extensively about INmune Bio (INMB), my favorite stock idea heading into the second half of 2023. The numerous catalysts and significant upside to the stock, combined with increasing clinical execution, make it an intriguing stock...
When I initially got involved with INmune Bio (INMB), one of the first pieces I published on the company was titled, "INmune’s Efforts in Alzheimer’s…Low Risk to Phase 1b Success???" At that time, it was quite apparent to anyone...
This week's newsletter is a mid-week job as I'm heading out to the west coast for some back country skiing on several volcanoes of the Pacific Northwest. There will be no newsletter next week as well but, assuming I...
A few weeks back I wrote about catalysts that weren't going to help your stocks. It was meant to be a little tongue in cheek but it's truly that kind of market. In case you require further proof of...
This past week saw very big gains in my two largest holdings, with Anixa (ANIX) trading up 34% and INmune Bio (INMB) closing up almost 27%. I'll be very honest when I say that it feels quite wonderful to...
Not to spend too much time looking in the rear view mirror, but a note I got from BTIG this past week did a nice job of summarizing the pain we have been facing in our biotech names.
How Long...
This past week was a surprisingly great week in TW's universe. I say surprisingly as, after watching INmune Bio (INMB) take a morning bath on Friday, the number of comments I received lamenting the portfolio's recent performance made it...
In the last two newsletters, I have been saying that the markets looked ready to move lower. More exactly, two weeks ago I said the following...
Baton down the hatches and keep some gunpowder in reserve. I think the next...
After a great start to the year, this last week the stock market reminded investors not to get too complacent. As I've said several times over the past few newsletters, the market was pricing in a Goldilocks Scenario. When...
Last year I wrote an article comparing playing backgammon to investing. The key to success in backgammon is focusing on the doubling cube. Knowing when the odds are in your favor and stepping into a bet in a big...
It has been a great start to 2023, particularly for smaller, growth stocks. The most likely explanation for this is investor expectations regarding inflation and future interest rates. While FED officials keep harping on further rate increases, the bond...
In the hills just west of Charlottesville lies the Crozet Tunnel. Built in the mid 1800's, it was a major supply route in the Civil War. Considered an amazing feat of engineering, the elliptical design of the tunnel allowed...
in 2022 I will not be filling your inbox on Christmas Day, instead taking a week off from publishing. This will give everyone a chance to enjoy the holiday without me delivering more coal to readers. A good thing...
Earnings and Interest Rates drive everything in the stock market. At the core of investing, this is all you need to know. When earnings are increasing, stocks go higher. When interest rates are going down, stocks go higher. When...
One of the strangest Thanksgiving Day traditions in this country is the annual pardoning of the Turkeys. This tradition, started by John F. Kennedy in 1963, in its current form, enables two large birds to escape the butcher's block....
As a kid, I grew up in the Boston area. Which makes me a life-long Red Sox fan. Since 2003, this has been a good thing but believe me when I say, I lived a tormented childhood with every...
Wil the last one in the Crypto room please turn out the lights?
The last time I wrote about Crypto was in August when I had this to say, "I think Bitcoin is about to make another downward move on...
As a kid did you eat your vegetables first or save them for last, hoping your parents wouldn't notice? I always ate them first with a fear of missing out on dessert if I didn't eat them. So, in...
Everyone has heard the saying, "can't see the forest for the trees." Roughly translated this speaks to getting so caught up in the minutiae that you miss the big picture. Heading out to go surfing on some really good...
With almost three months left in 2022, we are very close to setting a new record in the stock market. That would be the number of Fridays where the S&P is down over 1%. After this past Friday's shellacking,...
Sometimes you get it right. Here's what I said in my last July newsletter, as I previewed August.
Overall, I continue to be very optimistic for the TW universe and not so much about the larger cap stocks. The government...
Market movements are similar to the arc of a pendulum. They swing way past fair value in one direction only to see the inertia stop and a reversal in the other direction. This consistent back and forth happens with...
This week, in what was a somewhat nostalgic moment for me, Cryoport (CYRX)'s earnings hit the newswire. For long time readers of TW, you will remember Cryoport as the first big winner I hit, returning multiples on my investment...
Just when it's hottest in NY, and all the bankers have taken off for the Hamptons, we get to earnings season for the micro-caps of the world. Generally this is not a very big deal as our early stage...
Markets had a solid week but Friday was a classic example of what can happen during the slow summer months. Liquidity dries up and, when the algorithms sell, it can get ugly really quickly in micro-caps. A good week...
This week my group had a Zoom call with TFF Pharma (TFFP). Over the past year TFF has become a very polarizing stock. There are those, like myself, who are enamored with the technology. In our minds, thin-film-freezing is...
Okay, so I lied. I said that I wouldn't have a newsletter this week but couldn't help myself and here we are with a brief note on June as it was a month that certainly deserves attention for several...
This week I'm writing my newsletter on Thursday as I'm heading out to California this afternoon. The upcoming weekend will be spent in Downieville, a former mining town that is now a mountain biking mecca. It should be a...
In big market crashes, virtually every stock gets pummeled in unison. The market moves to an extremely oversold condition and the buying opportunity of a lifetime (or at least a decade) stares investors in the face. For those who...
The saying about insider stock transactions goes like this, "there are many reasons for insiders to sell but only one reason for them to buy." Like most stock market aphorisms, history shows this holds far more than a grain...
Two weeks ago this newsletter was titled, "Don't Fight The Fed". That week I discussed why the market was headed lower. The bottom line was, and remains, liquidity is being taken from the system. This leads to lower valuations...
Last week was the second week in a row where the TW portfolio was basically unchanged. A sign that markets are calming down? Actually, nothing could be further from the truth. The volatility in stocks is picking up daily...
This past week in Charlottesville, The Boar's Head Women's Open took place. This is an annual tennis tournament featuring 32 professional tennis players, most of whom are ranked in the top 250 in the world. Several past winners of...
"Change is the only constant in life" ~ Heraclitus
On Friday morning the first thing that caught my eye on Twitter was the happy announcement that we finally had a biotech acquisition taking place. Yep, Friday was April Fools Day.
April...
Markets are a discounting mechanism. In real time they discount future actions. There are very few times that events catch the market by surprise. They might catch you or me by surprise but, in most cases, markets have already...
By the time you read this newsletter, there's a good chance that the Ukraine will be begging for a ceasefire and, basically, surrendering to Russia. The lines are being redrawn on the next cold war, reinforcing the two facts...
There's been an ongoing joke in the TW Slack chat room. It goes like, "please tell not to issue any more bullish press releases...we investors can't take any more pain." While the joke might not sound tremendously funny,...
Another wild week in the markets, which is simply par for the course. At this time investors are speculating over the number and timing of interest rate increases? Is inflation here to stay? Is the consumer about to freak...
What a week in the markets, right? The past five days saw the biggest ever one day loss by a single company, followed shortly thereafter by the largest ever single day gain. Facebook's pummeling led to Amazon's surge. All...
Knock me over with a feather but there's finally been some movement in the ParkerVision (PRKR) vs. Qualcomm (QCOM) trial in Orlando. This is very exciting for the Company as they have been waiting many years for their day...
My constant refrain for most of 2021 has been that I don't like the market but love the stocks in my portfolio. I can honestly say that across the board I've built a collection of exciting companies that are...
Well, that didn't last long, did it? On Tuesday and Wednesday we saw what looked like a great reversal for biotech. The XBI opened dramatically lower on Tuesday then reversed into a nice gain. With a similar move on...
Similar to how the richest billionaires are getting a disproportionate amount of the wealth in the US, the companies they founded are becoming an ever larger swath of the market by taking an increasing amount of the gains. Meanwhile,...
Higher interest rates and inflation are not good for long-term investment plays. When earnings are years out, a change in the discount rate can create a big swing in the current value of a company. Biotech is the worst...
Intelligent investing can truly be boiled down to the understanding of risk and reward. In order to properly assess the potential risks of an investment, and to understand the potential rewards, an investor has to perform extensive due diligence....
Back when i was a kid, every Halloween the news covered stories of some whack job that would hand out apples to kids. The apples supposedly contained razor blades hidden in them and were intended to do some real...
Rode the train up to DC from Charlottesville on Friday night and, let me tell you, despite all the years and money thrown at Amtrak, they still manage to make trips a lot longer than they should be.
On Friday,...
September to remember? I had such high hopes. Sadly, it turned out to be a very forgettable month and I'm happy to have it behind me.
I was concerned about the market going into the historically weakest month of the...
After several weeks of lower stock prices, the market this past week decided that the looming bankruptcy of the world's largest real estate debt issuer wasn't a big deal after all. The fact that China's Evergrande was being compared...
The markets had another downward-trending week since the last newsletter. However, the overall tone of the market felt better from a micro-cap investing standpoint and my bi-polar attitude (loving my stocks, not liking the market) feels rather appropriate. Despite...
As I wrote about last week, we are entering what is historically the worst stretch of time for the market. I'm not sure why this is the case, but September is by far the toughest month for stocks. This...
I'm calling it a month. Normally, I'd wait until August is officially over before recapping things, but, since we only have two days of trading left, and since we are looking at a September to Remember (fingers crossed, big...
While the bankers and fund managers are heading out to the Hamptons for vacation, micro-cap earnings season kicked in last week and news flow in general seems to be picking up. I've been saying that the 2nd half of...
The markets seem to be quieting down as summer heats up and traders are heading to the beach for the last few weeks of August. It really feels like we are entering a "stock pickers" market as the action...